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COFFEE CROP DEVELOPMENT: BRAZIL’S 2025/26 SEASON

Coffee

WEATHER CHALLENGES IMPACTING COFFEE GROWTH

As we delve into the development of the 2025/26 coffee season in Brazil, it’s clear that unfavorable weather conditions have significantly affected the crop’s potential. Since the season began, above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall have created an environment less than ideal for coffee cultivation.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS

The Q3 2024 weather has posed challenges, particularly in September, where temperatures exceeded 34°C—critical for Arabica trees. These hot and dry conditions have led to increased defoliation and flower abortions, ultimately reducing the productive potential of the trees. September 2024 recorded only 15 mm of rainfall, a stark 45 mm below the historical average of 60 mm. This severe water deficit has been detrimental, causing concern about reaching the full productive capacity of the coffee trees this season.

LOOKING AHEAD: OCTOBER’S RAINFALL AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE

October 2024 has brought some relief, with rainfall levels now ranging between 30 mm to 90 mm. This precipitation is crucial, as it is expected to trigger widespread and intense flowering in the coming days. However, for optimal development of both flowers and cherries, a minimum of 100 mm of rain is essential for this month. Furthermore, between 100 mm and 150 mm will be necessary in the following months to support sustained growth.
Currently, while there have been isolated instances of flowering, they have not yet occurred widely across the region. Approximately 5% of the production potential has already flowered. Given the dry conditions, the trees are prepared for an intense flowering phase, with expectations of 50% to 60% of their productive potential blossoming once significant rains are realized.

SOIL MOISTURE INSIGHTS

The soil moisture index in September 2024 stood at 2.67 (on a scale of 1 to 5). This is a slight improvement compared to September 2023’s index of 2.60, yet it falls short of September 2022’s 3.22 and the historical average of 3.08. These metrics indicate that while conditions have improved slightly, they remain below optimal levels for coffee cultivation.

CONCLUSION

As we progress through October, the coffee community remains hopeful that increased rainfall will revitalize the crops and encourage a robust flowering phase. It is crucial to monitor the weather patterns closely and adapt management strategies accordingly to optimize the yield potential for the 2025/26 season. Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to track the development of the coffee crop in Brazil.

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